Is HTC in trouble?

There have been quite a few blog posts about HTC's 4Q 2011 and full year 2011 performance. As stated here and here, the 4Q results were disappointing, while the full year results were encouraging. So let's look at the company's full year results (adjusted for exchange rates of New Taiwanese Dollar to US Dollar).

HTC yearly revenues, 2009 to 2011.

HTC revenues grew 111% in 2010, and 61.5% in 2011. These are pretty robust numbers. The smartphone industry growth has been between 55% and 65% according to analyst estimates, and HTC's growth seems to be in line with the industry growth. It all looks fine, until we take a look at the quarterly numbers (again adjusted for exchange rates at end of each quarter).

Five Reasons Why Forbes May Be Wrong on Microsoft's Windows Phone

My LinkedIn homepage directed me to this article today on Forbes, titled “Five reasons why Microsoft Windows Phone will make a big splash”.

Interesting read, but sadly, not many of these 5 reasons cited by the author make much sense to me. Of course, they all make sense, in general, but I don’t see any of these 5 reasons strong enough to make a “big splash”!

Reason #1: Windows Phone Has A Totally Unique UI

Yes it does. So did RIM playbook, but that did not help RIM much, did it? Having a unique UI may or may not help make the product a success. Having a UI that makes something simpler, easier or faster to do may help, but still cannot guarantee success. 

Reason #2: Originality Means Fewer Forays Into The Patent Wars

Come on now! When you have a minefield of patents for everyday activities like clicking a button on a touch-screen, or uploading a photograph, no smartphone OS maker can be safe from patent wars. The only way to prevent patent wars is to build a big & mean portfolio of patents as a deterrent to any infringement claims. I believe Microsoft already has this, and so the point of fewer patent wars is valid, but the reason is not "originality".

Reason #3: Uniformity Across All Devices & Carriers

iOS already has this. So what's new? And who says that tight control and uniformity is the key to success in smartphones? We're talking about the world here, not USA. Android's "clopen" system is successful, Apple's closed iOS is also successful. Microsoft has just chosen to go the Apple way instead of the Google way.

Android strikes back!

Aha! This will be interesting now. HTC is sue-ing Apple using patents it bought from Google, which Google got from Motorola.

Everyone in the industry knew that Google is stocking up patent ammunition to lead it's counter-attack against Apple & Microsoft. This move also redeems Google's lost credibility among Android licensees (handset manufacturers like HTC and Samsung) when it acquired Motorola. I would expect very soon to hear news of Samsung fighting back the injunctions against Galaxy tabs with similar Google-supplied patents. A proxy patent war has started. Clash of the titans, indeed!